December 15, 2021 Snapshot

dec15 market > December 15, 2021 Snapshot - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf >

Everyone is acutely aware that home prices have been soaring for the past year-and-a half. They have far exceeded the runup in values prior to the Great Recession. This has many people on edge, wondering how values can continue to rise beyond their current record highs. In focusing just on prices, it is no wonder they fear an end to the pandemic housing run.

The active listing inventory shed 106 homes in the past two-weeks, dropping 6%, and now totals 1,805, its lowest level since tracking began. In November, there were 17% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average between 2017 to 2019
(2020 was skewed due to COVID-19), 575 less. Last year, there were 3,027 homes on the market, 1,232 additional homes, or 68% more.

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 297 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 10%, and now totals 2,576. Last year, there were 3,007 pending sales, 17% more than today, due to a delayed Spring Market because of COVID.

With an enormous drop in demand compared to the smaller drop in supply, the Expected Market Time for all of San Diego County increased from 20 to 21 days in the past two weeks, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) and very near the lowest level since tracking began 10 years ago. It was at 30 days last year, a bit slower than today.

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60-days) with an Expected Market Time of 18 days. This range represents 43% of the active inventory and 50% of demand.

For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 16 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.

For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 15 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 6% of the active inventory and 9% of demand.

For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 20 to 27 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 23 to 28 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 42 to 45 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 141 to 175 days. 

The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 30% of the inventory and only 15% of demand.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.7% of all listings and 0.6% of demand. There are only 11 foreclosures and 2 short sales available to purchase today in all of San Diego County, 13 total distressed homes on the active market, up 3 in the past two-weeks. Last year there were 27 total distressed homes on the market, slightly more than today.

There were 3,041 closed residential resales in November, 8% less than November 2020’s 3,321 closed sales. November marked a 6% decrease from October 2021. The sales to list price ratio was 101.1% for all of San Diego County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.5% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 99% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

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