November 15, 2021 Snapshot

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With an expected market time of only 23 days, the San Diego County housing market is hotter than it has ever been for this time of year. 

The active listing inventory shed 121 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 5%, and now sits at 2,243 homes, the lowest level for November since tracking began in 2012. For perspective, last year there were 3,671 homes at this time, 64% more, in 2019 there were 6,266 homes, 179% more, and in 2018 there were 8,285 homes, 269% more. That is correct, in 2018 there were close to four times the number of homes compared to today. It is hard to articulate just how acute the supply crisis has been this year, but it has underscored the incredible rise in home values and foreshadows continued appreciation to come. With the start of the Holiday Market, expect the inventory levels to plunge and drop below 1,800 homes by year’s end, at least another 20% lower than today. That will be on the back of fewer homes coming to market and unsuccessful sellers pulling their homes off the market and waiting until next year. The 3-year average from 2017 to 2019 (intentionally omitting 2020 due to COVID skewing the data) is 6,681, an extra 4,438 homes, or 198% more, nearly triple compared to today. There were a lot more choices back then. For October, there were 1,004 fewer new FOR-SALE signs in San Diego County compared to the 3-year average from 2017 to 2019, 23% less. Every single missing sign just exacerbates the inventory crisis.

Demand, a snapshot of the number of new escrows over the prior month, decreased from 3,005 to 2,964 in the past couple of weeks, shedding 41 pending sales, down 1%. At this point the limited supply of available homes is eating into the potential number of escrows. True demand, the number of buyers in the marketplace, is a lot higher than tracked demand based upon escrow activity. True demand is impossible to gauge, but the throngs of showings for just about every home that hits the market combined with the sheer volume of multiple offers generated illustrates that there is a vast pool of buyers looking to secure a home. Expect demand to continue to plunge with the start of the Holiday Market simply due to a dropping supply of homes. From now until New Year’s Eve, demand will sink to its lowest levels of the year. It will rise again in January after celebrating the start to 2022. Last year, demand was at 3,395, 15% more than today due to a four-month delay in the Spring Market because of COVID. The 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) is 2,715 pending sales, 8% less than today. With a larger drop in supply compared to demand, the Expected Market Time (the numberof days to sell all San Diego County listings at the current buying pace) decreased from 24 to 23 days, an extremely insane, Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) where there are a ton of showings, sellers get to call the shots during the negotiating process, multiple offers are the norm, and home values are rising rapidly. The lowest level of the year occurred on April 1st, at 19 days, not much different than today. Last year the Expected Market Time was at 32 days. The 3-year average prior to COVID was at 75 days, much slower than today, but still a Slight Seller’s Market.

November 8, 2021 Snapshot

Nov 8 market snapshot > Market Insights - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf - Page #3 - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf >

The active listing inventory shed 256 homes in the past two-weeks, down 10%, and now totals 2,364. In September, there were 15% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average between 2017 to 2019 (2020 was skewed due to COVID-19), 635 less. Last year, there were 3,775 homes on the market, 1,411 additional homes, or 60% more.

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 102 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 3%, and now totals 3,005. Last year, there were 3,637 pending sales, 21% more than today, due to a delayed Spring Market.

With a large drop in the supply and smaller drop in demand , the Expected Market Time for all of San Diego County decreased from 25 to 24 days in the past two weeks, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 31 days last year, similar to today.

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60-days) with an Expected Market Time of 19 days. This range represents 41% of the active inventory and 52% of demand.

For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 21 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.

For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 20 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 7% of the active inventory and 8% of demand.

For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 30 to 29 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 28 to 32 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 48 to 51 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 182 to 234 days.

The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 31% of the inventory and only 15% of demand.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.4% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 7 foreclosures and 3 short sales available to purchase today in all of San Diego County, 10 total distressed homes on the active market, down 1 in the past two-weeks. Last year there were 30 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

There were 3,532 closed residential resales in September, 6% less than September 2020’s 3,753 closed sales. September marked a 3% decrease from August 2021. The sales to list price ratio was 100.8% for all of San Diego County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Nov. 1 Market Update | North County San Diego

DETACHED SINGLE FAMILY

October 2021

 

% CHANGE COMPARED TO 2020

NEW LISTINGS

509

-14.6%

PENDING SALES

484

-6.9%

CLOSED SALES

483

-15.7%

DAYS ON MARKET

19

-32.1%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$810,000

+22.7%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$883,535

+24.5%

 

ATTACHED SINGLE FAMILY

October 2021

 

% CHANGE COMPARED TO 2020

NEW LISTINGS

619

-14.9%

PENDING SALES

598

-4.9%

CLOSED SALES

600

-13.9%

DAYS ON MARKET

18

-33.3%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

$740,000

+17.5%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

$805,301

+22.9%

SAN DIEGO COUNTY OVERVIEW | MEDIAN SALESPRICE

EAST SAN DIEGO

$670,500

+15.6

METRO SAN DIEGO

$760,000

+17.0%

NORTH SAN DIEGO

$710,000

+15.4%

SOUTH SAN DIEGO

$708,000

+17.0%

SAN DIEGO COUNTY

$740,000

+14.0%

 

EAST COUNTY

METRO SAN DIEGO

NORTH COUNTY

SOUTH SAN DIEGO

MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $670,500

MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $760,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $710,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $708,000

AVG SALES PRICE: $678,090

AVG SALES PRICE: $788,038

AVG SALES PRICE: $760,667

AVG SALES PRICE: $964,303

% OF ORIG PRICE RECEIVED: 101.6%

% OF ORIG PRICE RECEIVED: 101.6%

% OF ORIG PRICE RECEIVED: 101.0%

% OF ORIG PRICE RECEIVED: 102%

HOMES FOR SALE: 989

HOMES FOR SALE: 625

HOMES FOR SALE: 682

HOMES FOR SALE: 713

CLOSED SALES: 822

CLOSED SALES: 580

CLOSED SALES: 653

CLOSED SALES: 686

DAYS ON MARKET: 9

DAYS ON MARKET: 8

DAYS ON MARKET: 11

DAYS ON MARKET: 9

October 18, 2021 Snapshot

oct18mkt > Market Insights - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf - Page #3 - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf >

The active listing inventory shed 272 homes in the past two-weeks, down 9%, and nowtotals 2,668, its largest drop of the year. From September 1st through the 15th, there were19% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average between 2017to 2019 (2020 was skewed due to COVID-19), 413 less. Last year, there were 3,958 homeson the market, 1,290 additional homes, or 48% more.

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 146 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now totals 3,131. Last year, there were 3,637pending sales, 16% more than today, due to a delayed Spring Market.

The Expected Market Time for all of San Diego County decreased from 27 to 26 days in thepast two weeks, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 33 days last year, similar to today.

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60-days) with an Expected Market Time of 20 days. This range represents 42% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.

For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 25 days, still a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.

For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 25 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 7% of the active inventory and 7% of demand.

For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 29 to 23 days. For homes priced between $1.5million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 33 to 31 days.

For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 55 to59 days.

For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 164 to 201 days.

The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 29% of the inventory and only 17% of demand.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.4% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 8 foreclosures and 2 short sales available to purchase today in all of San Diego County, 10 total distressed homes on the active market, down 2 in the past two-weeks. Last year there were 29 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

There were 3,624 closed residential resales in August, 1% less than August 2020’s 3,646 closed sales. August marked a 3% decrease from July 2021. The sales to list price ratio was 101.8% for all of San Diego County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.2%. That means that 99.4% of all sales were good ol’fashioned sellers with equity.

September 13, 2021 Snapshot

market update statistics > Market Insights - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf - Page #3 - California Real Estate Expert Robert Wolf >

The active listing inventory shed 214 homes in the past two-weeks, down 7%, and now totals 2,907, its largest drop of the year. In August, there were 22% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average between 2017 to 2019 (2020 was skewed do to COVID-19), 1,101 less. Last year, there were 4,225 homes on the market, 1,318 additional homes, or 45% more.

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 30 pending sales in the past two-weeks, down 1%, and now totals 3,345. Last year, there were 3,938 pending sales, 18% more than today, due to a delayed Spring Market.

The Expected Market Time for all of San Diego County decreased from 28 to 26 days in the past two weeks, a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days). It was at 32 days last year, similar to today.

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Hot Seller’s Market (less than 60-days) with an Expected Market Time of 21 days. This range represents 42% of the active inventory and 52% of demand.

For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time is 24 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 22% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.

For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time is 28 days, a Hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 7% of the active inventory and 7% of demand.

For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 32 to 27 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 38 to 34 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 51 to 45 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 162 to 169 days.

The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 29% of the inventory and only 17% of demand.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.6% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. There are only 12 foreclosures and 4 short sales available to purchase today in all of San Diego County, 16 total distressed homes on the active market, up 3 in the past two-weeks. Last year there were 13 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.

There were 3,732 closed residential resales in July, 2% less than July 2020’s 3,803 closed sales. July marked a 5% decrease from June 2021. The sales to list price ratio was 102.4% for all of San Diego County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

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